Unrestricted Warfare - USA-Israel-Iran War 2026
My respect for the two Chinese senior colonels—Colonel Qiao Liang and Colonel Wang Xiangsui, authors of Unrestricted Warfare: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America—has increased significantly as I observe the unfolding conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing Iran War.
These officers carefully studied the 1991 Gulf War and predicted that the future of warfare would not remain confined to traditional battlefields.
They anticipated a world where wars would increasingly involve:
- Multi-domain conflict
- Information warfare
- Cyber operations
- Economic pressure
- Psychological influence
Today’s conflicts are validating many of these observations.
Modern war is no longer merely about armies confronting each other across frontlines. Instead, it is about systems, perception, endurance, deception, and national resilience.
Key Strategic Lessons from the Current Conflict
1. Strategic Depth and Geography Still Matter
Despite advances in precision weapons and satellite surveillance, geography remains decisive.
Iran’s geography—mountains, deserts, and dispersed infrastructure—has allowed it to absorb repeated air strikes. Underground facilities and concealed missile launch sites make targeting significantly harder.
Technology may accelerate warfare, but terrain still determines survivability.
2. Dispersal and Deception are Powerful Tools
One of the most effective strategies observed is deception through numbers and decoys.
Large numbers of missile decoys force an adversary to expend extremely expensive precision weapons on false targets.
In modern warfare:
- A missile interceptor can cost millions of dollars
- A convincing decoy can cost a few thousand
The mathematics of warfare is changing.
Victory is no longer just about destroying the enemy—it is also about exhausting his resources.
3. Cheap Weapons Can Beat Expensive Systems
Another clear lesson is the growing importance of low-cost mass weapons.
Instead of relying entirely on expensive platforms, states are increasingly investing in:
- Cheap drones
- Mass-produced missiles
- Integrated air defence networks
- Swarm technologies
Quantity creates its own form of deterrence.
A large number of affordable systems can overwhelm even technologically superior adversaries.
4. Unmanned Warfare is Expanding Rapidly
One of the most important trends is the rise of unmanned launch systems.
Deep underground or remotely operated launch platforms allow strikes without exposing personnel.
This offers two advantages:
- Reduced casualties
- Sustained offensive capability
Future wars may increasingly involve machines launching weapons from hidden locations with minimal human presence.
5. Power Projection is Becoming Fragile
Traditional military power relied heavily on large platforms:
- Aircraft carriers
- Large naval vessels
- Centralized bases
However, modern warfare has revealed a harsh reality.
A single successful strike against a major platform can create massive strategic and psychological damage.
Large systems are powerful—but they are also visible and vulnerable.
6. Smaller Disposable Platforms Are the Future
Instead of concentrating power in a few large systems, militaries are moving toward:
- Smaller vessels
- Mobile missile units
- Distributed launch systems
- Drone swarms
These platforms are:
- Harder to detect
- Harder to destroy
- Cheaper to replace
This shift represents a fundamental change in military strategy.
7. Belief Systems Sustain Long Wars
Wars are not fought only with weapons.
They are fought with belief and ideology.
Religion, national identity, and political conviction sustain morale during prolonged conflicts.
A society that deeply believes in its cause can endure extraordinary hardship.
History repeatedly shows that psychological resilience can outlast technological superiority.
8. Always Have an Exit Plan
One of the most critical strategic lessons is simple:
Know your exit strategy before firing the first shot.
Wars that begin without clear political objectives often evolve into long, costly conflicts.
Strategic planning must therefore include how to end a war, not just how to win battles.
9. Leadership Becomes the Strategic Target
Modern conflicts increasingly target leadership structures.
Decapitating leadership can:
- Disrupt command chains
- Create political shock
- Collapse operational coordination
For this reason, leadership protection has become a central element of national security.
10. National Security Cannot Be Outsourced
Another clear lesson is that no nation can outsource its own security.
Alliances can help, but every nation must ultimately develop:
- Indigenous defence technology
- Domestic weapons production
- Resilient military infrastructure
Dependence on external security guarantees can become a strategic vulnerability.
11. Cost Matters in War
Modern wars consume enormous resources.
Countries that rely solely on extremely expensive weapons systems risk exhausting their financial capacity before conflicts conclude.
Affordable systems combined with large stockpiles provide strategic endurance.
12. Missile Numbers Matter
Precision matters.
But numbers matter even more.
A nation with sufficient missile inventory can sustain prolonged conflict, overwhelm air defence systems, and maintain deterrence.
Conclusion: The Fundamentals of War Remain Unchanged
The ongoing Iran War demonstrates that modern warfare is not simply a contest of military hardware.
It is a contest of strategy, deception, resilience, and national will.
Technology has transformed the battlefield, but the fundamentals remain unchanged:
- Geography still matters
- Leadership matters
- Belief systems matter
- Numbers matter
- Strategy matters
And increasingly, deception matters.
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